The countdown clock started the moment Biden came into office in 2020.
Premise: The Chinese plan for a 120-day war. They stockpile resources for to carry their domestic economy through the war, for that long.
Thesis development:
a. PRCer objectives are to overwhelm the first island chain offshore.
b. Their setup and con-op is access denial.
b1. Keep the Americans out.
b2. Hammer or damage the target nation states one at a time through a combination of tactical and strategic bombardments or force surrenders by démarches.
b3. This process compels the Americans to come to within PRCer system's ranges, where the PRCers destroy the Americans afloat.
c. Negotiate a new world order after b2. is complete.
Counter-thesis:
a. The Americans concede the first island chain, with the understanding that the nations within that chain will fight. This sponge degrades the PRCer offense. "Maybe."
b. After degradation, the Americans roll the PRCer's back under a bombardment of missiles and PGMs. "MAYBE".
c. Negotiate a PRCer surrender. "Iffy".
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The contention, Zeihan made, is that the defenders wait and starve the Chicoms out after their 120-day stockpile evaporates.
We don't dare wait 120 days to force the decision. We have until our munitions run out.
Then it goes nuclear. Both sides know this fact.
Carbon.
Premise: The Chinese plan for a 120-day war. They stockpile resources for to carry their domestic economy through the war, for that long.
Thesis development:
a. PRCer objectives are to overwhelm the first island chain offshore.
b. Their setup and con-op is access denial.
b1. Keep the Americans out.
b2. Hammer or damage the target nation states one at a time through a combination of tactical and strategic bombardments or force surrenders by démarches.
b3. This process compels the Americans to come to within PRCer system's ranges, where the PRCers destroy the Americans afloat.
c. Negotiate a new world order after b2. is complete.
Counter-thesis:
a. The Americans concede the first island chain, with the understanding that the nations within that chain will fight. This sponge degrades the PRCer offense. "Maybe."
b. After degradation, the Americans roll the PRCer's back under a bombardment of missiles and PGMs. "MAYBE".
c. Negotiate a PRCer surrender. "Iffy".
================================================================================
The contention, Zeihan made, is that the defenders wait and starve the Chicoms out after their 120-day stockpile evaporates.
We don't dare wait 120 days to force the decision. We have until our munitions run out.
Then it goes nuclear. Both sides know this fact.
Carbon.
statistics: Posted by Carbon1234 — 7:54 PM - 1 day ago — Replies 2 — Views 48