https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/key ... e=hs_email
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year this month, the conflict poses a number of key questions for Kyiv and its international allies – ones that could determine the course of the war over the next several years, as it looks increasingly likely to last at least that long.
For months now both sides have settled into a tragic and costly stalemate, and it is unlikely the frontlines will move that much in 2024. From Russia’s side and barring any significant battlefield developments or indeed political change within the Kremlin—President Vladimir Putin will assuredly win reelection in March—the “special military operation” will continue with the Kremlin pursuing maximalist aims.The central question, and one that Ukraine cannot answer alone, is what its theory of victory? From this question all other answers flow. As the war enters its third year, Kyiv and its Western backers agree that victory is necessary, but there is no clear path from here to victory, or what precisely constitutes a militarily achievable, politically viable victory.The present course of action suggests that neither Kyiv nor Moscow will achieve their maximalist objects—the recovery of all territories including Crimea for the former or the subjugation of its neighbor for the latter. The war risks heading toward a much longer conflict than Western capitals had recognized or were willing to accept until very recently. Consequently, short-term planning and policy thinking focused on red herrings like specific arms platforms and not what “winning” meant in practice.For Ukraine, continued survival and independence is in its own way a significant victory, as is the unification of the country’s national identity. These are, however, coming at a high price. The extent of Ukraine’s losses is estimated to be high, and its remaining forces have been at war for nearly two years. Mobilizing additional soldiers, as the armed forces has requested, will prove increasingly difficult politically for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even more so if progress is not seen or believed. That Ukraine will fight on is not in question.
This is a great article asking the important question of what constitutes victory in a practical achievable way. I've heard pie in the sky BS here about victory is when Putin is gone or killed. He's headed toward reelection and in complete control of his country. Grow up and realize it is not happening. Also regaining all of the Ukraine has as much chance of success as the Palestinians have of gaining from the river to the sea. Meanwhile we have a quagmire that has to be dealt with as countries are tiring of funding a war that appears unwinnable.
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year this month, the conflict poses a number of key questions for Kyiv and its international allies – ones that could determine the course of the war over the next several years, as it looks increasingly likely to last at least that long.
For months now both sides have settled into a tragic and costly stalemate, and it is unlikely the frontlines will move that much in 2024. From Russia’s side and barring any significant battlefield developments or indeed political change within the Kremlin—President Vladimir Putin will assuredly win reelection in March—the “special military operation” will continue with the Kremlin pursuing maximalist aims.The central question, and one that Ukraine cannot answer alone, is what its theory of victory? From this question all other answers flow. As the war enters its third year, Kyiv and its Western backers agree that victory is necessary, but there is no clear path from here to victory, or what precisely constitutes a militarily achievable, politically viable victory.The present course of action suggests that neither Kyiv nor Moscow will achieve their maximalist objects—the recovery of all territories including Crimea for the former or the subjugation of its neighbor for the latter. The war risks heading toward a much longer conflict than Western capitals had recognized or were willing to accept until very recently. Consequently, short-term planning and policy thinking focused on red herrings like specific arms platforms and not what “winning” meant in practice.For Ukraine, continued survival and independence is in its own way a significant victory, as is the unification of the country’s national identity. These are, however, coming at a high price. The extent of Ukraine’s losses is estimated to be high, and its remaining forces have been at war for nearly two years. Mobilizing additional soldiers, as the armed forces has requested, will prove increasingly difficult politically for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even more so if progress is not seen or believed. That Ukraine will fight on is not in question.
This is a great article asking the important question of what constitutes victory in a practical achievable way. I've heard pie in the sky BS here about victory is when Putin is gone or killed. He's headed toward reelection and in complete control of his country. Grow up and realize it is not happening. Also regaining all of the Ukraine has as much chance of success as the Palestinians have of gaining from the river to the sea. Meanwhile we have a quagmire that has to be dealt with as countries are tiring of funding a war that appears unwinnable.
statistics: Posted by Rebcop — 5:23 PM - Today — Replies 1 — Views 49